But consumers remain cautious retailer also raised its amid the slow economic guidance for the rest of the recovery, and several factors current fiscal year, which between now and Christmas includes the 2010 holiday could affect their moods, season. including November's midterm Suzanne Long, director of elections. retail operations for global "The good news is hopefully consulting firm SSA & Company, we have been bottoming out," said back-to-school shopping said Bob Robicheaux, a has become more of an event retailing expert at the than pure necessity, and she University of Alabama at doesn't think it's Birmingham. "We certainly necessarily an indicator of don't seem to be sliding any holiday sales. deeper, but we are not making Instead, Long said, Halloween great strides out of it." is the harbinger of what's to For retailers, he said, it come for the Christmas season, remains an anxious time, as it's grown over the years since most have already had to become a more celebrated to order inventory for the holiday. holiday season, despite the "It's basically a precursor unknowns that lie ahead. to Christmas," she said. Robicheaux said he expects "It's the biggest opportunity lots of early promotions and that retailers have between discounts for holiday back-to-school and the shoppers, much like the past holidays to boost their sales. two seasons. " "I don't think they're As such, more and more counting on making a lot of retailers and individual money, but they're hoping to brands are expanding their generate a lot traffic in Halloween merchandise. their stores and sell a lot This year, Long expects a of merchandise and see if mixed bag for Halloween they can get into a better sales: costume sales should year in 2011." rise, while home decor Keivan Deravi, an economist declines. Candy sales, at Auburn University at meanwhile, should be flat or Montgomery, said he expects a increase over last year, she 2 to 3 percent rise in U.S. said. retailers' holiday sales, Many retailers indicate the compared to 1 percent growth size of their holiday last year. inventory with the size of "We don't have free-wheeling, their Halloween inventory, free-spending consumers. We Long added. have very, very price- "I definitely feel that conscious and targeted-type Halloween sets the tone for buying. They don't just buy the variety of items you'll for the sake of buying," he have later on," she said. said. Inventory has been a key But they will spend when it issue for retailers during comes to certain items, he the past two holiday seasons. said, such as iPhones and In 2008, many were left stuck iPads and other technology with unsold items that had gadgets that pique their been ordered that summer, interest. before the global financial "For the Christmas holidays, crisis took hold that fall, it all depends on what's causing shoppers to pull back being offered, what is hot at Christmas. and if it's really hot, The tide then turned in 2009, what's the price," he said. as retailers scaled back So despite the interest in their inventories, making hot technology, shoppers will many items scarce. still place a heavy This year, Deravi expects to consideration on their see a mix of both trends at wallets, Deravi said. work. Retailers will have to Halloween harbinger The pay close attention to the economic picture remains prices of the items they're murky. Unemployment is still ordering, because that's far above pre-recession going to be a key factor in levels, although the jobless shoppers' decisions, he said. rates for both metro Close to home Birmingham- Birmingham and Alabama based jeweler Bromberg's dropped in August. expects a better holiday Home sales and prices also season than last year, continue to lag, putting although the company remains consumers in a sour mood. cautious, said President But they put those feelings Ricky Bromberg. on hold in August, when it In ordering for the season, came to preparing their Bromberg's paid close children for class. attention to price points, he Back-to-school shopping, said, considering customers along with sales tax holidays who will still be looking for held in a number of states, special gifts but buying a including Alabama, were little more carefully. credited for the August "We wanted to make sure that retail sales boost. we're appealing to all the At the same time, retailers price points in general and including Macy's, Kohl's and some that might be lower," he J.C. Penney reported said. increases in their same-store And while Bromberg's is being sales for the month. cautious, the company is not Meanwhile, Best Buy reported as cautious as last year. a 60 percent jump in earnings "We feel like we're seeing a for the quarter that ended in little bit of forward motion, late August, crediting higher " Bromberg said. demand for mobile phones, Join the conversation by appliances and tablet clicking to comment or e-mail computers. The electronics Kent atdkent@bhamnews.com.
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